The United States is expected to account for only a small fraction of global betting activity during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to new analysis from investment bank Macquarie, which estimates the country will represent roughly 5% of worldwide wagering volume during the tournament.
Macquarie recently projected that betting turnover for the expanded World Cup could exceed $50 billion globally, making it the largest betting event ever recorded. Despite the tournament being hosted across the United States, Canada and Mexico, and despite the continued expansion of legal sports betting in America, analysts believe the US market will have only a limited impact on overall betting volumes.
Chad Beynon, Senior Gaming, Lodging & Theatres Analyst at Macquarie, explained that the firm’s forecast of approximately $500 million in wagers per match is based on worldwide activity rather than US betting alone. According to the bank, even significant growth in the American market would have only a modest effect on total global figures because the country’s share remains relatively small.
Macquarie also noted that the expanded World Cup format could influence betting patterns. With 104 matches scheduled, compared to 64 in the 2022 tournament, wagering activity may be spread across a larger number of games, potentially limiting average betting volume on individual fixtures.
The firm’s projections are based exclusively on legal sports betting activity and do not include wagers placed through offshore operators. Beynon said Macquarie’s estimate for the 2022 World Cup was derived from global legal betting data, with the bank estimating that legal sports wagering across all sports reached between $600 billion and $700 billion that year. During the World Cup period, the firm assumes that around half of all global sports betting activity is directed toward tournament matches.
Macquarie also confirmed that its forecasts exclude prediction markets. While platforms offering event-based contracts have gained attention during this year’s tournament, the bank has not produced separate estimates for their World Cup trading volumes. Beynon suggested that such platforms may be more attractive to consumers in jurisdictions where online sportsbooks remain unavailable rather than competing directly with established sportsbook customers.