The Dutch gambling regulator has drawn a clear line around prediction markets, ordering Polymarket to withdraw from the Netherlands or face penalties of up to €840,000.
The Kansspelautoriteit said the cryptocurrency-based platform was offering unlicensed gambling to Dutch consumers. According to the regulator, event-based prediction contracts available on the site qualify as games of chance under national law and therefore require a Dutch licence. Polymarket, operated by Adventure One QSS, does not hold such authorisation.
How the regulator built its case
KSA investigators found that Dutch users could access the site using local IP addresses, create accounts, deposit funds, place bets and withdraw winnings. The regulator also confirmed that payments were processed via Dutch banks, including Mastercard transactions routed locally. Payment instructions appeared in Dutch, and transactions could be conducted in euros.
Beyond accessibility, KSA pointed to indicators of market targeting. Customer support was available in Dutch, the Netherlands was not listed as an excluded jurisdiction in the terms of use, and markets included betting on Dutch political developments, including cabinet events. Under Dutch law, operators without a licence are expected to actively block access to local players.
The regulator said that access alone was enough to trigger enforcement. That interpretation leaves little room for grey positioning.
“Not gambling” argument rejected
In its defence, Polymarket argued it operates a prediction exchange rather than a traditional gambling site. The company maintained that users trade positions with each other and that outcomes reflect informed decision-making rather than pure chance.
The regulator dismissed this distinction. It held that regardless of how contracts are structured or settled, users are staking money on uncertain outcomes for potential financial gain. Under Dutch legislation, that is sufficient to qualify as gambling. It is a blunt definition, but it is consistent with previous Dutch enforcement logic.
KSA therefore ordered Polymarket to cease operations within four weeks of the 20 January ruling. If the platform fails to comply, it will face weekly fines of €420,000, capped at €840,000.
Ella Seijsener, director of licensing and supervision at KSA, said prediction markets are gaining traction but remain outside the permitted Dutch framework. She added that such products are not allowed in the Netherlands under any circumstances, even for licensed operators, and cited broader societal risks including potential influence on elections. The language was firm.
Part of a broader regulatory pattern
The Dutch action adds to a growing list of legal challenges facing Polymarket internationally.
In 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission imposed a $1.4 million civil penalty on the company for offering event-based contracts without proper registration in the United States. The platform agreed to wind down certain markets and strengthen compliance controls. That episode did not close the debate around its model.
Since then, scrutiny has intensified. Several US states, including Nevada and Massachusetts, have questioned whether sports and event contracts amount to illegal betting. In late 2024, French regulator Autorité Nationale des Jeux geo-blocked Polymarket for offering online gambling without a licence. The pattern is difficult to ignore.
A regulatory fault line
The Dutch ruling underscores a wider legal tension: are prediction markets financial exchanges or gambling platforms?
While operators argue that market pricing and peer-to-peer mechanics distinguish them from sportsbooks, regulators increasingly focus on the core activity. If consumers risk money on uncertain events with the prospect of profit, many authorities are treating it as gambling regardless of technological structure.
For Polymarket, the Netherlands becomes another jurisdiction where that interpretation has prevailed. Whether the company complies or challenges the order will signal how aggressively it intends to defend its model in Europe’s regulated markets. It is not entirely clear how far that defence can realistically go.