The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has fined former Congressman George Santos after concluding that he manipulated a prediction market on Kalshi tied to his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address.
According to the regulator, Santos placed trades on a Kalshi contract asking whether he would attend the speech while simultaneously posting statements on social media that suggested he planned to be there. He ultimately did not attend, allowing him to profit from positions that benefited from his absence. The CFTC said the conduct amounted to manipulative trading because Santos had direct influence over the event’s outcome and allegedly misled the market through his public communications.
Under the settlement, Santos agreed to return $17,569.98 in profits and pay an additional $17,500 civil monetary penalty, bringing the total financial sanction to just over $35,000. He also accepted a three-year ban from trading on CFTC-regulated prediction markets. The agreement was reached without Santos admitting or denying the regulator’s findings. His attorney maintained that Santos originally intended to attend the event but changed his plans due to weather-related travel issues.
Kalshi, which detected the suspicious activity through its internal compliance systems, reported the trades to federal authorities and has indicated it will pursue its own disciplinary measures while seeking compensation for traders affected by the manipulation. The case has become one of the highest-profile enforcement actions involving prediction markets and highlights the industry’s growing focus on preventing traders from profiting on events they can personally influence.
The enforcement action comes as the CFTC continues to increase oversight of event contracts. Earlier this year, the agency issued guidance warning that insider trading, market manipulation and the misuse of confidential information on prediction markets will be pursued under the Commodity Exchange Act, reinforcing expectations that platforms and participants maintain strong market integrity standards.