Germany’s regulated sports betting market could lose as much as €400 million in wagering activity to unlicensed operators during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to the Deutscher Sportwettenverband (DSWV), the trade association representing licensed online sportsbooks.
The association estimates that total betting turnover on the tournament will exceed €1 billion, making it the largest betting event since Germany’s Fourth Interstate Treaty on Gambling came into force in July 2021. While licensed operators are expected to handle between €600 million and €700 million in bets, the DSWV believes a further €300 million to €400 million could be placed with offshore operators serving German customers without local approval.
The World Cup is seen as a major test of Germany’s regulated gambling framework and its ability to direct consumers toward licensed betting platforms. However, the DSWV argues that current regulations continue to weaken the competitiveness of legal operators and allow the black market to thrive.
Mathias Dahms, President of the DSWV, noted that major football tournaments typically generate betting volumes comparable to an additional month of revenue for the industry. Matches involving the German national team are expected to attract particularly strong interest. At the same time, he warned that the amount of betting likely to flow to illegal operators highlights a persistent challenge for the regulated market. According to industry and regulatory data, around one-third of users engage with illegal gambling services to some degree, while the black market has recently expanded faster than the legal sector.
The DSWV continues to criticise several elements of Germany’s gambling regime. Among the main concerns are the country’s 5% tax on betting stakes, a universal monthly deposit cap of €1,000, and restrictions on live betting products. Licensed operators are currently unable to offer several popular betting options commonly available in other regulated markets, including certain player-specific and micro-event wagers.
The association also argues that illegal operators face fewer marketing restrictions and can more easily take advantage of the heightened public interest surrounding major sporting events. In contrast, licensed companies are required to comply with strict player protection measures, monitoring systems and responsible gambling standards.
As Germany prepares for a broader review of its gambling framework, the DSWV is urging regulators and state authorities to address what it sees as structural weaknesses in the current system. The group believes reforms aimed at improving market competitiveness and increasing channelisation are needed if the country wants to reduce black-market activity and strengthen the regulated sector ahead of future major sporting events.