Gibraltar has taken a first-mover position in Europe’s evolving prediction markets space by granting a licence to a new operator, signalling a potential shift in how the vertical is treated by regulators.
Justice, Trade and Industry Minister Nigel Feetham confirmed that Predict Street Ltd has become the jurisdiction’s first licensed prediction market platform.
The approval was issued under Gibraltar’s existing gambling framework, even though a new Gambling Act has yet to come into force.
Fast-tracked approval under legacy law
The licence was granted on 26 March under the 2005 Gambling Act, with Predict Street classified as a betting intermediary.
Feetham highlighted the speed of the process, describing it as record timing for a regulatory approval in Gibraltar. The move suggests the regulator is willing to act quickly in emerging segments, even before updated legislation is fully implemented.
Predict Street is preparing for launch, with its platform indicating a go-live date in early April. The company also claims to be an official prediction market partner for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, positioning itself directly within mainstream sports engagement.
Strategic pivot amid UK pressure
The decision comes at a sensitive time for Gibraltar’s gambling sector.
The territory has long depended on operators serving the UK market, but recent increases in UK gambling duties are expected to significantly raise the effective tax burden on Gibraltar-based businesses.
According to Feetham, this has triggered a more proactive strategy to diversify and strengthen Gibraltar’s regulatory offering.
The gambling industry remains a core economic pillar for the territory, employing thousands and contributing roughly one-third of government revenue. Expanding into new verticals like prediction markets could help offset external regulatory pressure.
Europe tests the limits of prediction markets
Gibraltar’s move contrasts sharply with the approach taken elsewhere in Europe.
In markets such as the Netherlands and France, prediction platforms have been treated as either illegal gambling or unlicensed financial instruments. Operators like Polymarket have already faced enforcement action and access restrictions.
At the same time, Malta has signalled interest in developing its own regulatory framework for prediction markets, suggesting that parts of Europe may be exploring a more structured approach rather than outright prohibition.
A new regulatory battleground
The key issue remains classification.
Prediction markets sit in a grey zone between gambling and financial trading. Operators argue outcomes are driven by market dynamics and user decisions, while regulators increasingly view them as chance-based wagering products requiring licensing.
Gibraltar’s decision to formally license an operator effectively treats the model as part of the regulated betting ecosystem, rather than pushing it outside the system.
What comes next
Authorities have indicated that further details on the framework and licensing approach will be released in the coming days.
For now, the move positions Gibraltar as an early adopter in a space that is rapidly gaining traction globally but remains legally contested in most jurisdictions.
For operators, the signal is clear: prediction markets are no longer just a regulatory grey area – they are becoming a defined battleground for licensing, classification and control.