Gibraltar has introduced a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets, becoming the first jurisdiction to treat the sector as a distinct category requiring rules separate from conventional gambling.
The Prediction Market Regulations 2026 were published in the Gibraltar Gazette on 13 July by the Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry. The rules form part of the territory’s updated gambling legislation and follow several months of work by the government and industry specialists.
Under the new regime, prediction market operators will face specific requirements covering market integrity, consumer protection, financial crime prevention and operational resilience. The framework also addresses risks associated with market manipulation, insider information and the use of automated or technology-led trading systems.
Operators will not be permitted to approve their own event contracts. Each proposed market must instead be submitted to the Gibraltar Gambling Authority for review and certification before it can be offered to customers. Regulators will consider the subject of the contract, how its outcome will be determined and whether it creates unacceptable legal, ethical or integrity risks.
The rules are designed to account for the differences between prediction exchanges and traditional sportsbooks. Prediction platforms allow participants to trade positions linked to the outcome of real-world events, including sporting, political, economic and cultural developments.
An independent supervisory panel has also been established to help oversee the implementation of the framework. According to Justice, Trade and Industry Minister Nigel Feetham, Gibraltar’s experience supervising remote businesses and complex digital markets provides a strong foundation for regulating the emerging sector.
The launch comes after Gibraltar approved two prediction market businesses. ADI Predictstreet received the territory’s first licence in March, operating as a betting intermediary and later launching as an official prediction market partner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
WagerWire operator Wire Industries subsequently received approval in principle in June, becoming the second company to enter Gibraltar’s developing prediction market ecosystem.
Feetham said the new regime was intended to establish Gibraltar as a leading centre for responsible digital innovation while ensuring new products remain subject to high regulatory standards. The government also sees the sector as a potential source of investment, employment and economic diversification.
Gibraltar’s approach contrasts with the position adopted in several other European markets. France, the Netherlands and Spain have restricted or blocked prediction platforms that operated without local approval. Spain temporarily banned Polymarket and Kalshi in May after authorities concluded that they were offering gambling products without the necessary licences.
Concerns about insider dealing and manipulation have grown alongside the sector. In the United States, Kalshi recently introduced additional compliance controls, including employment disclosures for sensitive markets, risk assessments and new tools for reporting suspicious activity.
Gibraltar’s framework represents an alternative to outright prohibition, placing prediction markets within a regulated system while recognising that their structure and risks differ from those of established betting products.