A Google software engineer has been accused by US prosecutors of using confidential company information to generate more than $1.2 million in profits through bets placed on prediction market platform Polymarket.
According to a complaint unsealed in New York, Michele Spagnuolo allegedly traded under the username “AlphaRaccoon” and used internal Google data to place high-stakes wagers tied to the company’s search trends and annual “Year in Search” rankings.
Prosecutors claim the 36-year-old Italian national, who lives in Switzerland, risked roughly $2.75 million on Polymarket markets between October and December 2025. Authorities say the bets were based on nonpublic information he accessed through Google’s internal systems.
The Department of Justice alleges Spagnuolo exploited confidential company tools and data labeled “Google Confidential” to predict outcomes before they became public. One wager reportedly involved correctly predicting that singer D4vd would become Google’s most-searched person of the year despite the market assigning almost no probability to that outcome.
Other trades allegedly included predictions linked to celebrities and trending searches that depended on Google’s internal methodology for ranking surging search traffic rather than total search volume.
Federal prosecutors charged Spagnuolo with violations of the Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud and money laundering. If convicted on all counts, he could face a maximum sentence of up to 50 years in prison.
US Attorney Jay Clayton said the case sends a message that corporate insiders cannot use confidential business information for financial gain in prediction markets.
Google confirmed it is cooperating with law enforcement and said the employee has been placed on leave. The company stated that while the internal tool was accessible to employees, using confidential information for betting purposes is a serious breach of policy.
Polymarket also said it worked with investigators during the case and claimed its integrity systems flagged suspicious activity connected to the account.
The charges arrive as prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi face growing regulatory and political scrutiny in the United States. Critics argue the platforms create opportunities for insider trading and market manipulation, while supporters continue to promote them as alternative forecasting tools.
The investigation marks one of the highest-profile insider trading cases connected to prediction markets to date.