New Zealand’s gambling regulator has declared that major prediction market platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi are operating illegally under the country’s gambling laws, marking a decisive regulatory stance on a sector long debated globally.
According to the New Zealand Department of Internal Affairs, these event-based contract platforms cannot be treated as legitimate financial markets in New Zealand and instead fall within the scope of the nation’s gambling regulations. As a result, offering their products to New Zealand residents is prohibited unless the operators are licensed under domestic gambling law.
“Since they aren’t authorised operators, they are prohibited from offering their gambling products to people in this country,” the regulator’s gambling director said in a statement to local media. Users participating in these markets from within New Zealand are considered to be engaging in unlicensed gambling activity.
Why regulators equate prediction markets with gambling
Prediction markets allow individuals to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of future events, ranging from elections and sports results to economic or political developments. Participants can win or lose money depending on how the outcome unfolds. Although companies like Kalshi and Polymarket argue they operate as derivatives exchanges — akin to financial instruments — New Zealand’s regulator has taken the position that this structure does not exempt them from gambling law when real money is at stake.
This regulatory view mirrors a recent decision in neighbouring Australia, where authorities concluded that similar platforms fall under gambling regulations and therefore must be blocked or treated as unauthorised gambling.
Current legal environment in New Zealand
Under New Zealand’s gambling law, online wagering is largely restricted to the state monopoly provider TAB, which continues to hold the exclusive right to offer legal online betting services. Traditional casino gambling is not yet fully regulated online, though the government is preparing to introduce licensing for remote casinos, with plans to auction up to 15 licences in the coming period.
At present, however, the country does not enforce technical blocking of overseas gambling sites, meaning platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi can still technically be accessed by New Zealand users unless the operators themselves choose to restrict access. The regulator’s declaration reinforces that any continued access constitutes a breach of the law.
Industry views and wider context
Prediction market operators typically defend their models by distinguishing them from traditional gambling, arguing that they function more like financial markets where participants trade contracts based on event outcomes rather than place bets against a bookmaker. However, regulators in multiple jurisdictions have taken a stricter view.
For example, a number of US states have begun legal actions against platforms like Kalshi on the grounds that event contracts constitute unlicensed gambling under local gaming laws, even as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission contends it has authority over derivatives markets.
Polymarket has faced bans and regulatory challenges in other markets as well. It has been blocked in countries including France, Belgium and Singapore for operating without gambling licences, and its global expansion has drawn scrutiny as regulators worldwide attempt to define where prediction markets fit within existing legal frameworks.
What happens next
While New Zealand’s declaration does not currently involve mandatory geoblocking of these platforms, it adds to growing regulatory pressure internationally. Operators that serve New Zealand or other jurisdictions with strict gambling laws may need to reassess their compliance strategies, particularly as more countries consider whether prediction markets should be treated as gambling, financial instruments, or some hybrid category.
For now, New Zealand’s position is clear: unless platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi obtain appropriate local licensing or adjust their offerings to fall outside gambling definitions, they are illegal to offer within the country.