The US NFL betting market is projected to generate more than $40 billion in wagering activity during the 2026 season, with prediction markets accounting for approximately one-fifth of the total, according to a new forecast from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG).
The research firm’s September 16 report estimates that licensed retail and online sportsbooks will handle $31.7 billion in NFL wagers, representing 79% of the combined market. Prediction platforms are expected to contribute another $8.4 billion in sportsbook-equivalent activity, giving them a projected 21% share.
The forecast marks a significant development for the US wagering industry as prediction platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, compete with established sportsbook operators on a larger scale.
EKG expects conventional NFL sportsbook handle to increase by approximately 8% year over year, supported partly by promotional spending from major operators. Bet365 has introduced a $365 welcome offer, while FanDuel and Fanatics have advertised $350 promotions and DraftKings has offered $200 to attract new customers.
However, the research firm acknowledges that its prediction market estimates carry greater uncertainty because the sector is expanding rapidly and trading activity cannot be directly compared with conventional sportsbook handle.
Industry Forecasts Reveal Different Expectations
EKG’s projections differ from those published by other industry researchers, particularly regarding the growth of licensed sports betting.
The American Gaming Association (AGA) expects Americans to wager $29.5 billion through legal sportsbooks during the NFL season, compared with $29.4 billion in the previous year. The association attributes the anticipated slowdown partly to the expansion of sports-related prediction contracts.
H2 Gambling Capital forecasts $31.4 billion in sportsbook handle, representing a 0.8% annual decline. Meanwhile, RotoWire projects $32.3 billion in traditional sportsbook wagers alongside $36.8 billion in prediction market trading volume linked to NFL outcomes.
These figures are not directly interchangeable because prediction market trading volume measures exchange activity rather than the amount customers stake in the same manner as sportsbook wagers.
EKG has developed a proprietary conversion model to estimate the sportsbook-equivalent value of prediction market activity, producing its $8.4 billion forecast.
The model uses daily trading data from Kalshi, Polymarket’s international and US operations, Nadex, and CME. It incorporates contract volumes and executed trades to calculate a comparable wagering measure, which EKG calls Handle Analog.
The firm has not publicly disclosed the complete conversion formula, making independent verification of its projected 21% market share difficult.
Opening-Week Trading Raises Questions About Market Share
Prediction platforms recorded substantial activity during the opening week of the NFL season, suggesting that their eventual share of the market could differ from EKG’s full-season projection.
Needham estimated that eight prediction exchanges generated $14.6 billion in sports and parlay trading volume during the opening NFL week. Its analysis translated that activity into approximately $2.1 billion in consumer-equivalent wagering handle.
Kalshi represented 76% of the recorded trading volume, followed by Polymarket with 12% and DraftKings’ DKeX platform with approximately 3%.
A separate Jefferies analysis identified $3.12 billion in trading volume across eight exchanges on the opening Sunday. Kalshi accounted for $963 million in NFL-related activity, although its taker-side trading volume, a measure more closely associated with customer wagering, was substantially lower.
EKG’s own data also indicates rapid growth. Football-related contract volume across the exchanges it monitors reached 2.94 billion contracts between September 1 and September 14, compared with 746 million during the corresponding period in 2025.
Kalshi’s volume increased approximately 2.5 times, while Polymarket’s US operation contributed around half a billion contracts after recording no comparable activity a year earlier.
Spread across an approximately 23-week NFL season, EKG’s $8.4 billion prediction market forecast implies an average of roughly $365 million in sportsbook-equivalent activity per week.
That figure is considerably below Needham’s opening-week estimate, although the latter includes college football and other sports, uses a different conversion method, and covers a period of particularly high betting activity.
Consequently, the opening-week figures cannot establish that prediction markets will exceed EKG’s projected share across the full season.
Regulatory Developments Could Reshape Competition
The geographic distribution of prediction market customers remains an important factor in determining how the two wagering channels compete.
EKG’s July data showed that California and Texas accounted for 44% of Kalshi’s retail demand, while 69% originated from states without legal sports betting.
Prediction platforms have attracted substantial activity in jurisdictions where conventional sportsbook operators cannot legally offer their services. However, their ability to continue operating across these markets remains subject to regulatory challenges.
Kalshi has faced adverse court decisions involving its sports contracts, while Connecticut has issued cease-and-desist orders against nine prediction market platforms. A Michigan court has also restricted Kalshi’s sports contracts, and disputes involving New Jersey, Robinhood, and Crypto.com have reached the US Supreme Court through petitions.
Changes to prediction market availability could shift trading activity toward states where licensed sportsbooks already operate, increasing competition between the two channels.
EKG currently estimates that prediction markets reduce sportsbook handle by approximately 1% to 3% in the most competitive online betting states, compared with what operators might otherwise have generated.
H2 Gambling Capital has estimated a larger impact of 4% to 6%, while sportsbook operators have reported differing experiences. DraftKings has indicated that it has not identified a measurable effect on its existing business, whereas BetMGM has reported a more significant negative impact.
EKG has not established whether customer migration from sportsbooks to prediction platforms will accelerate or decline as the NFL season progresses.
The firm’s $40.1 billion combined forecast therefore represents an early assessment of a market in which conventional sportsbooks remain the larger wagering channel, while prediction platforms expand amid unresolved questions over regulation, customer behavior, and the measurement of trading activity.