Betting data ahead of the FIFA World Cup semi-final between England and Argentina highlights a familiar football rivalry, with Scottish customers overwhelmingly backing Lionel Messi’s team to eliminate the Three Lions.
Figures released by Entain, the parent company of Ladbrokes and Coral, show that 51% of bets placed by customers in Scotland are on Argentina to win the semi-final, while only 34% are supporting England. South of the border, sentiment is reversed, with 53% of English bettors backing their own team compared to 30% favouring Argentina.
Entain has dubbed the trend the “McMessi effect,” reflecting the long-standing football rivalry between England and Scotland, where many Scottish supporters traditionally cheer for England’s opponents in major international tournaments. The pattern mirrors the enduring “Anyone But England” culture that often resurfaces during World Cups and European Championships.
The operator noted that Wales is the only other UK home nation where England attracts the largest share of bets, while international betting markets slightly favour Argentina overall.
Betano has also reported strong support for the reigning world champions. According to data from Kaizen Gaming’s sportsbook, 71% of users backing the “To Qualify” market expect Argentina to reach the World Cup final by defeating England. The figures follow a similar trend from the quarter-finals, when 75% of Betano users had predicted Norway would eliminate England before Jude Bellingham’s extra-time brace secured a 2-1 comeback victory.
In the tournament’s other semi-final, Betano users have also shown confidence in France, with 79% backing Kylian Mbappé’s side to overcome European champions Spain. Despite that betting split, bookmakers continue to price both semi-finals as closely contested affairs.
Player markets are also generating significant interest. Betano said 60% of first-goalscorer bets for France versus Spain are on Mbappé, while Messi leads the anytime goalscorer market for England versus Argentina with 34% of selections. For England, Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane remain the most popular picks among bettors.
The semi-finals feature the four highest-ranked men’s national teams in the FIFA World Rankings, making it the first World Cup since the rankings were introduced in 1992 where the top four ranked nations have all reached the last four.
Meanwhile, bet365 reported record engagement during the quarter-finals, revealing that more than 1.3 million bets were placed on its Global Boost offers with a success rate of nearly 92%. England’s quarter-final victory over Norway generated more than seven million betting slips worldwide, while the operator said it has now paid out over £105 million through its “Sub On Play On” promotion during the tournament.