Sweden is quietly delivering one of the more counterintuitive outcomes in European gambling: fewer problem gamblers in a rapidly expanding digital market.
A new long-term study commissioned by the Swedish Trade Association for Online Gambling shows that gambling harm has declined significantly over the past decade, even as online betting, product availability and marketing activity surged.
Fewer problem gamblers, more gambling overall
Using the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI), the report found that the share of Swedish adults classified as problem gamblers dropped from 2.2% in 2008–09 to 1.3% in 2021.
That translates into roughly 57,000 fewer problem gamblers, a 35% reduction over the period.
The broader group of “at-risk” players also shrank by around 200,000 individuals. Among online gamblers specifically, the improvement is even more pronounced, with problem gambling rates falling from 12% to about 4% in recent years.
At the same time, participation remains high. Around 18% of Swedes played online casino games in 2025, while 24% placed online bets, confirming that demand has not weakened.
A market that grew, but stabilised
The decline comes against the backdrop of massive structural growth.
Over the past two decades, Sweden has seen near-universal internet and smartphone adoption, a tenfold expansion in online casino offerings and a sharp rise in marketing spend, which peaked before the country introduced its licensing regime in 2019.
That reform appears to have played a stabilising role by shifting activity into the regulated market, where operators are required to implement player protection tools.
Channelisation doing the heavy lifting
One of the key drivers behind the trend is channelisation.
Sweden’s regulated market captures roughly 85% of gambling activity, allowing authorities to enforce safeguards such as self-exclusion, behavioural monitoring and duty-of-care measures.
The national self-exclusion system, Spelpaus, now has around 136,000 registered users, or 1.6% of the adult population.
However, the data also exposes a weak point. Around half of those who self-exclude still find ways to gamble, primarily through offshore platforms. That leakage highlights the ongoing tension between regulation and the black market.
Severe cases remain unchanged
While overall harm has declined, the most serious cases have not moved much.
Severe problem gambling levels have remained relatively stable over time, suggesting that while lighter-risk behaviour can be influenced by policy and tools, the most vulnerable players require more targeted intervention.
What actually works
The report points to several approaches showing measurable impact.
Machine learning models analysing player transaction data are increasingly effective at identifying early signs of risky behaviour, although long-term validation is still ongoing.
More established methods, such as cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), continue to deliver strong results in reducing gambling frequency and addiction symptoms.
Experts also highlight the psychological dimension of online gambling. The perceived anonymity of digital platforms can make it harder for players to recognise harmful behaviour or seek help.
Not a solved problem
Despite the positive trend, policymakers are cautious.
Sweden’s framework is broadly seen as functional, but not optimal. Issues around black market leakage, enforcement and long-term sustainability remain unresolved.
There is also no clear “best model” to copy. Analysts suggest Sweden’s biggest advantage may be what it has avoided, rather than what it has perfected.
The bigger takeaway
Sweden’s data challenges a common assumption in gambling policy: that market growth inevitably leads to more harm.
Instead, it suggests that regulation, when combined with high channelisation and effective tools, can decouple growth from risk – at least to a certain extent.
But the margin for error is thin. As long as offshore alternatives remain accessible, even a well-functioning system will struggle to fully contain gambling harm.