Europe’s illegal online gambling market is on course to reach as much as €13 billion in 2026 after expanding at an estimated compound annual rate of 18% since 2019, according to new research commissioned by European gaming trade body EUROMAT.
The study, produced by Regulus Partners and Helios, examined unlicensed gambling activity across 28 European jurisdictions, including major regulated markets such as the UK, Germany and the Netherlands. Separate coverage of the research puts illegal online gambling revenue at approximately €12 billion in 2025, equivalent to around one quarter of Europe’s wider online gambling market.
Researchers found that illegal activity is heavily concentrated among a relatively small group of large operators. Around 25 operators are estimated to generate 64% of relevant black-market traffic, while the biggest group of sites under common ownership represents roughly 12% of traffic and the largest individual brand about 10%.
The report links that concentration partly to the growth of cryptocurrency payments and the ability of major offshore operators to build internationally recognisable brands through advertising and sponsorship. Some operators also use licences from lightly regulated offshore jurisdictions alongside complicated ownership structures, making enforcement by national authorities more difficult.
Smaller unlicensed sites, meanwhile, remain more dependent on affiliate networks to attract customers.
Regulatory restrictions linked to weaker channelisation
EUROMAT’s research argues that regulatory restrictions affecting licensed companies can contribute to consumers moving outside regulated markets.
Significant advertising restrictions were identified in 46% of the jurisdictions examined, including Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania and Spain. Consumer taxation applied in 29% of the surveyed markets, while 14% had prohibited particular gambling products. Five markets were also identified as having monopoly structures that restrict the range of legal alternatives available to players.
Product availability was highlighted as another factor. Where customers cannot legally access particular casino games, betting markets or other gambling products, the study suggests they may switch to offshore platforms offering a broader selection.
France is one example cited by the report, where online casino gaming remains unavailable to domestically licensed operators even though offshore websites can still target French consumers.
Restrictions affecting bonuses or slot-game characteristics can have a similar effect, according to the research. Customers seeking higher promotional offers or different game conditions may be more likely to explore websites outside the regulated system.
The study also found that illegal gambling revenue is particularly concentrated among high-spending players. The top 1% of active customers are estimated to account for almost half of black-market revenue, mirroring the broader tendency for online gambling expenditure to be concentrated among a relatively small share of customers.
UK illegal market could approach €1bn
The UK was identified as one market where channelisation could face increasing pressure.
Researchers pointed to greater use of affordability checks alongside the sharp increase in Remote Gaming Duty as potential factors influencing some customers’ behaviour. The tax on remote gaming increased from 21% to 40% on 1 April 2026, while a separate 25% rate for remote betting is scheduled to take effect from 1 April 2027, excluding remote bets on UK horseracing.
Regulus estimates that the UK’s illegal gambling market could consequently approach €1 billion as customers seeking unrestricted bonuses or other products turn to unlicensed websites.
Industry research has previously pointed to similar concerns. A YouGov survey published in 2025 found that 65% of participating bettors believed higher gambling taxes could encourage customers to use unregulated websites if increased costs were passed on to players.
The UK nevertheless continues to benefit from a large regulated market. EUROMAT’s report identified as many as 1,491 licensed gambling websites, giving British consumers significantly more legal choice than is available in many smaller European jurisdictions.
Study combines traffic and regulatory data
Regulus and Helios used several data sources to estimate the scale of unlicensed activity, including web traffic, digital marketing information, macroeconomic data and each jurisdiction’s regulatory framework.
Helios examined illegal gambling websites actively marketing into the 28 countries between March and May, with those findings cross-checked against Similarweb traffic information.
The analysis found that in several regulated markets the number of actively promoted illegal websites exceeded the number of locally licensed alternatives. The countries where this pattern was identified included France, Portugal, the Netherlands, Germany, Cyprus, Belgium and Spain.
The findings reinforce EUROMAT’s conclusion that Europe’s illegal online gambling sector has moved beyond a fragmented collection of offshore websites and developed into a large, increasingly concentrated market capable of competing for traffic with nationally licensed operators.