Fresh analysis of Kalshi’s trading activity suggests the prediction market’s headline volume figures substantially exceed the amount customers actually put at risk, while sports-related contracts now account for most of the money flowing through the platform.
Gambling Insider reconstructed Kalshi’s public trade record using data from the kalshi.trade_report table on Dune. Its analysis found that Kalshi’s conventional method, which counts every contract at its full $1 settlement value, produced roughly $40 billion of August volume. Measuring trades instead by the actual price paid for each contract reduced the figure to about $11.4 billion.
Under the same premium-based calculation, July activity reached $12.3 billion and June stood at $9.6 billion. The difference is particularly large because Kalshi contracts can trade for only a few cents despite having a $1 settlement value if they resolve successfully.
Across August, contracts changed hands at an average price of 28.6 cents, meaning the face-value calculation was around 3.5 times higher than the amount represented by actual trade prices. Gambling Insider stressed that this premium measure is not identical to sportsbook handle because Kalshi operates as an exchange, with customers trading against one another rather than against a bookmaker.
Sports and Combos Drive Most Customer Spending
Sports represented the biggest component of Kalshi’s business when activity was measured by money actually committed.
Single-game sports markets accounted for approximately $5.6 billion, equivalent to around 49% of August trading. Including multi-leg combo contracts lifted the sports share to 58.5%. When smaller sporting competitions classified elsewhere in the dataset were included, Gambling Insider estimated that at least 61% of customer money was tied to sporting events.
Combos show the sharpest difference between the two volume methodologies.
Using full $1 face values, the contracts generated about $17.8 billion in August and represented roughly 44.6% of Kalshi activity. Based on actual trade prices, however, customers committed approximately $1.09 billion to combos, reducing their share to 9.6%.
The gap reflects the extremely low prices at which many multi-leg contracts trade. August combos cleared at an average of just 6.1 cents, causing face-value volume to exceed premium-based trading by around 16.3 times.
Sports and combos together represented 74.7% of Kalshi volume under the face-value system, compared with 58.5% when calculated using actual trade prices.
Meanwhile, short-duration cryptocurrency and commodity contracts accounted for roughly $3.9 billion, or 34% of August premium volume. Bitcoin markets resolving over 15-minute intervals alone generated about $2.7 billion.
Financially Linked Markets Remain a Small Part of Trading
The composition of Kalshi’s activity has become increasingly important because of its continuing legal dispute with US states over whether its sports event contracts qualify as swaps regulated exclusively at the federal level.
Gambling Insider grouped contracts covering areas such as Federal Reserve decisions, inflation, employment figures, GDP, tariffs, stock indices, elections, government funding and nominations as markets with a comparatively direct financial, economic or commercial connection.
Those categories generated only $64.3 million in August, approximately 0.6% of money traded on Kalshi. Their share has remained below 2.5% during every month of 2026, according to the analysis. Volume in the category fell from $95.8 million in January even as overall premium-based exchange activity climbed from $3.8 billion to $11.4 billion by August.
The distinction matters after US appellate courts reached different conclusions on Kalshi’s legal position.
In August, the Ninth Circuit ruled that Kalshi’s sports event contracts did not fall within the Commodity Exchange Act definition of swaps relied upon by the company. The court said the connection between a sporting outcome and potential financial or economic consequences was insufficient under its interpretation of the statute.
That decision contrasts with an earlier Third Circuit ruling that allowed Kalshi to continue operating sports contracts in New Jersey while litigation proceeded, leaving a significant disagreement over federal and state authority.
Kalshi’s Scale Approaches Traditional Sports Betting
Even after adjusting for contract prices, Kalshi has reached significant scale.
Annualising August’s $11.4 billion premium figure would produce approximately $137 billion in yearly activity. For comparison, US state-regulated sportsbooks recorded $166.94 billion in betting handle during 2025, according to the American Gaming Association.
The comparison is not exact because exchange volume and sportsbook handle are structured differently. Nevertheless, it illustrates how rapidly prediction markets have grown alongside regulated sports betting.
The AGA has continued to argue that sports event contracts should remain subject to state and tribal gambling regulation. The association said state-regulated sportsbooks generated $16.96 billion in revenue from their $166.94 billion 2025 handle and claimed prediction markets offering sports contracts had diverted more than $500 million in potential state sports betting tax revenue by February 2026.
Gambling Insider said its August calculations were based on Kalshi’s public trade records through September 3. Settlement payments were excluded, meaning the analysis counted only the price paid when contracts traded rather than subsequent winnings.
Kalshi and Polymarket were approached for comment on the analysis but had not responded by the time the original report was published.