The prediction market sector reached a major milestone in June, with total trading volume exceeding $50 billion for the first time, according to a new report from investment bank Macquarie. The surge was largely driven by increased activity around the 2026 FIFA World Cup and rising mainstream interest in event-based trading platforms.
Macquarie analysts estimated that June volumes jumped around 75% compared with May, highlighting the rapid expansion of platforms that allow users to trade contracts based on the outcome of real-world events. Kalshi remained the dominant player, accounting for roughly $33 billion in volume, or about 65% of the overall market.
The World Cup has played a key role in accelerating adoption, with sports-related contracts attracting both casual users and experienced traders. Analysts noted that major sporting events have become one of the strongest growth drivers for prediction exchanges, bringing the format closer to traditional sports betting audiences while operating under a different regulatory structure.
The market’s expansion has also benefited other platforms, including Polymarket, which continues to strengthen its position internationally. New entrants are also attempting to capture a share of the fast-growing sector as investor interest increases.
However, rapid growth has brought greater regulatory attention. In the US, prediction markets remain at the centre of debates over whether certain event contracts should be treated as financial products or gambling. Kalshi has faced legal challenges from state regulators, including a recent New York dispute over the oversight of sports-related contracts.
Despite uncertainty, analysts believe prediction markets are becoming a more established part of the broader trading ecosystem. The key question is whether platforms can maintain June’s record-breaking momentum once the World Cup boost fades.