Meta is reportedly preparing to enter the fast-growing prediction markets sector with a new standalone mobile application known internally as “Arena,” according to multiple reports. The project would position the tech giant alongside established platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket while giving it access to an audience of billions of existing users.
The experimental app is said to launch with a points-based forecasting system rather than real-money wagering. Users would be able to predict the outcomes of real-world events, allowing Meta to test the concept while avoiding many of the regulatory hurdles currently surrounding prediction market operators in the United States and other jurisdictions.
According to reports, Arena has become a high-priority project inside Meta. Unlike existing prediction market companies, the social media giant would be able to promote the app across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, whose combined daily active user base exceeds 3.5 billion people.
The move would not mark Meta’s first attempt at the sector. In 2020, the company introduced Forecast, a prediction platform that also relied on a points-based system before discontinuing the product two years later.
Meta’s renewed interest comes as prediction markets continue to expand rapidly. Combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reached approximately $24bn in April, up from around $5bn in September 2025. Investment firm Bernstein has projected the industry could eventually generate as much as $1tn in annual trading volume by 2030.
Arena would also complement Meta’s existing gaming ecosystem. The company already permits advertising for social casino products that do not offer cash prizes, while licensed real-money gambling operators can advertise on its platforms where local regulations allow and after receiving Meta’s approval.
However, the reported project arrives as Meta continues to face criticism over gambling-related content. Regulators in countries including France, the UK, Malaysia and Brazil have questioned the company’s handling of advertisements for unlicensed gambling operators. More recently, a Dutch trade association filed legal action and a complaint with the European Commission, alleging that illegal operators were responsible for the vast majority of gambling ads shown to users in the Netherlands on Facebook and Instagram.
The broader prediction markets industry also faces an uncertain regulatory outlook. In the US, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has proposed new rules that would prohibit contracts linked to events such as war, terrorism and assassinations, while questions surrounding sports-related prediction contracts remain unresolved.
If Arena eventually launches, Meta would become the latest major technology company seeking to capitalize on growing interest in prediction markets, but it will also enter a sector facing increasing regulatory scrutiny worldwide.