Meta reportedly considered acquiring prediction market operator Kalshi before deciding to develop its own competing platform, although discussions between the two companies never progressed beyond informal conversations.
According to reports, Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg and Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour discussed the possibility of a deal, but no formal negotiations were launched. Instead, Meta has continued work on its own prediction market product, inspired by platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket but designed with a different approach.
One key distinction is expected to be Meta’s use of a points-based system rather than real-money trading. The reported model would allow users to participate without placing cash wagers, potentially reducing the regulatory challenges that have followed prediction market operators in the United States.
Kalshi has spent the past two years expanding its business while defending its products in court. The company has successfully challenged efforts to block its political prediction markets, but it continues to face legal battles, including a recent case in Michigan where a judge temporarily halted certain event contracts while litigation continues.
Industry observers believe the differing visions for prediction markets may have contributed to the lack of progress. While Meta reportedly prefers a non-cash platform that minimizes legal risk, Kalshi has continued to back its regulated real-money model and remains committed to defending it through the courts.
Another factor may have been Kalshi’s willingness to remain independent. Reports suggest Mansour had little interest in selling the company, leaving Meta to revive its own prediction market ambitions after shelving its earlier Forecast project several years ago.
With billions of users across its platforms and significant financial resources, Meta could quickly become a major player if it successfully launches its prediction market service. Meanwhile, Kalshi continues to strengthen its position in the sector, with reports indicating the company could eventually reach a valuation of around $40 billion.